The Forums Are Now Closed!

The content will remain as a historical reference, thank you.

Why the erebus nerf is foolish, and what to do instead

By on May 12, 2009 7:49:57 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

I know lots of people have been whining for Erebus to get nerfed lately, and this has been done. But statistics don't really lie, at least not ones this simple. Erebus is middle of the field in the pantheon. If her were truly as overpowered as all the whiners have been saying, he'd be higher up, if not on the top. That is all there is to it.

So the patch came through to placate people who were getting raped by him. Sure, I agree he's obnoxious and powerful (in my opinion he should be an assasin, and swap places with TB, but that's beside the point) but not OP, or he'd be higher up in k/d ratio.

 

If anything needs to be changed, it's the demigods on the bottom who should be getting a buff. The only safe thing right now to say is that Queen of Thorns needs a buff. She's been on the bottom since release, and by a wider margin than any other demigod. That is statistics, and that is the answer. Nerfing a mid-range demigod makes no sense whatsoever.

+1 Karma | 120 Replies
May 12, 2009 7:53:38 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

I think the reason he is in the middle is because the AI likes playing as him. But I agree that QoT needs a few buffs.

May 12, 2009 8:05:46 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Quoting JagerJack,
I think the reason he is in the middle is because the AI likes playing as him.

Explain this further. Because the OP was referencing Pantheon statistics, in which the AI would only take over for player's whom left the game early. Said statistics can be found here. As the OP said, there is no objective data to support Erebus being nerfed. Erebus does not stand out in any category.

For the record I play primarily as Rook for the Forces of Light and Queen of Thorns for the Forces of Darkness, and I am very confused as to why so many people are fixated on demigod balance, and further, why the development team would have such a knee-jerk (and extreme) reaction to subjective and unsupported claims on these forums.

May 12, 2009 8:14:18 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Quoting dakinston,

Quoting JagerJack, reply 1I think the reason he is in the middle is because the AI likes playing as him.

Explain this further. Because the OP was referencing Pantheon statistics, in which the AI would only take over for player's whom left the game early. Said statistics can be found here. As the OP said, there is no objective data to support Erebus being nerfed. Erebus does not stand out in any category.

For the record I play primarily as Rook for the Forces of Light and Queen of Thorns for the Forces of Darkness, and I am very confused as to why so many people are fixated on demigod balance, and further, why the development team would have such a knee-jerk (and extreme) reaction to subjective and unsupported claims on these forums.

I meant that when you are stuck with an AI from the beginning of the game it isn't uncommon for the enemy AI to be Erebus, in my experience at least.

And yes, I'm aware that the AI was recently taken out of Pantheon, but I stress the term recently. The AI haven't been out long enough to make a significant change in the stats. I think we should wait until later in the current pantheon before we use stats to prove a point.

May 12, 2009 8:22:09 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Quoting JagerJack,

Quoting dakinston, reply 2
Quoting JagerJack, reply 1I think the reason he is in the middle is because the AI likes playing as him.
Explain this further. Because the OP was referencing Pantheon statistics, in which the AI would only take over for player's whom left the game early. Said statistics can be found here. As the OP said, there is no objective data to support Erebus being nerfed. Erebus does not stand out in any category.

For the record I play primarily as Rook for the Forces of Light and Queen of Thorns for the Forces of Darkness, and I am very confused as to why so many people are fixated on demigod balance, and further, why the development team would have such a knee-jerk (and extreme) reaction to subjective and unsupported claims on these forums.

I meant that when you are stuck with an AI from the beginning of the game it isn't uncommon for the enemy AI to be Erebus, in my experience at least.

And yes, I'm aware that the AI was recently taken out of Pantheon, but I stress the term recently. The AI haven't been out long enough to make a significant change in the stats. I think we should wait until later in the current pantheon before we use stats to prove a point.

 

So crying is a better means of proving a point?

 

If you're going to wait till later to get actual stats in than a nerf should have waited till that point as well.

May 12, 2009 8:25:41 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

erb nerf was too much, only 1-2 of the nerfs were needed

 

and i dont play as erb

May 12, 2009 8:27:07 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Quoting Ouchy Dathurts,


So crying is a better means of proving a point?

If you're going to wait till later to get actual stats in than a nerf should have waited till that point as well.

What? Who's crying? In all honesty I couldn't care less if he got nerfed or not. I don't play as him, and I have never had a problem beating him before.

 

May 12, 2009 8:27:16 PM from Stardock Forums Stardock Forums

As the OP said, there is no objective data to support Erebus being nerfed.

None that 'we' have.  I certainly hope GPG isn't simply looking at win ratios on Pantheon when making balance changes, though.

May 12, 2009 8:28:49 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Quoting JagerJack,

Quoting Ouchy Dathurts, reply 4

So crying is a better means of proving a point?

If you're going to wait till later to get actual stats in than a nerf should have waited till that point as well.
What? Who's crying? In all honesty I couldn't care less if he got nerfed or not. I don't play as him, and I have never had a problem beating him before.

 

Nor have I. But his nerf was 100% due to crying with no stats or data to back it up.

May 12, 2009 8:32:51 PM from Stardock Forums Stardock Forums

Pantheon statistics do not tell you which DGs are the most efficient. If they did, then it would mean Hunters in World of Warcraft were kings of everything for the first two years and Shaman never had any advantage in the early days of PvP, but it's widely accepted that Hunters were over-used by gold-farmers and Shaman was a problem until the autumn of 2005. The context is important.

If people say Erebus is overpowered, certain players will be encouraged to use him whilst a minority of macho competitive types might consider it completely unsporting to use him at all because of the perception. It skews the statistics: a good player might win more matches with Erebus, but for each of them there are many more average and below average players that are not making the most of his advantages and bringing the numbers down. The statistics as they are can't tell us anything unless they are broken down more. There are people that win more games on average and people who lose more games on average and there are players that always use Erebus and people that casually drift between DGs depending on their mood. Without knowing anything about the kind of players that use Erebus, we can't draw any conclusions from just the numbers.

Our most accurate metric at the moment is reasonable projections, tested and found to be true. Things like his ability to permanately stay in Mist form if a player invests towards it, his movement advantage given by Bat Swarm over impassable terrain and the amount and extent of the utility co-efficients stacked on his primary damage ability. We know he can do the first two; feats not as easily replicable by other DGs without significant trade-offs and the third is a more complicated matter but seems such a 'must have' that it's drawn suspicion.

May 12, 2009 8:41:43 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

I share a similar sentiment that I had expressed in another thread. I am not sure if Erebus is OP, I play almost all the demigods, less rook and torch bearer, and holding them in juxtaposition I can honestly say I never really had a problem with him (and in another thread posted some methods for dealing with him). I worry a great deal about a nerf so early in the games development when a competitive seen has even yet to developed. Based purely on my own past experiences an action such as this sets a bad precedence and leads to greater calls for nerfs, balances and buffs, usually with no backing, leading to a vicious cycle of balances and rebalances such that no player ever really get theirs bearings.

            There is an interesting chapter in Jonathan Baron’s book ‘Thinking & Deciding’ called ‘Quantitative Judgment’ that hits precisely on the matter at issue, peoples subjective opinions and statistics. The standard model for quantitative judgments is a statistically derived model called multiple linear regression. Basically the goal is to construct a statistical prediction rule (SPR) that measures whatever particular case, in regards to a number of different dimensions and cue’s. Students that go to graduate school for example are evaluated by an SPR that takes into account GPA, GRE scores, letters of recommendation, and other such things, which are each given a weight in accordance with their relevancy to the issue at hand. SPR’s are in common use now, and studies show time and time again that they are much more accurate than the opinions of experts, that is, they are far more effective than expert human judgment, (and in this case I do not believe any of us can even claim the status of expert). Stats don’t show bias, they don’t omit information, they express a value of whatever their function might be.

            You can argue against the above all you like, but studies have shown time and time again [please see Baron’s book] that you are wrong, statistical analysis trumps human judgment every time, and should therefore be the method both preferred, and deferred to, when trying to determine balancing issue’s; and if we at current do not posses enough data, that is all the more reason to withhold major game changes, we need the data if we are to make informed decisions, PERIOD. What’s more, if we have this data the chances are high that the balancing put into place as a result, will be the only balancing needed.

 

May 12, 2009 8:46:28 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Pantheon statistics do not tell you which DGs are the most efficient. If they did, then it would mean Hunters in World of Warcraft were kings of everything for the first two years and Shaman never had any advantage in the early days of PvP, but it's widely accepted that Hunters were over-used by gold-farmers and Shaman was a problem until the autumn of 2005. The context is important.

If people say Erebus is overpowered, certain players will be encouraged to use him whilst a minority of macho competitive types might consider it completely unsporting to use him at all because of the perception. It skews the statistics: a good player might win more matches with Erebus, but for each of them there are many more average and below average players that are not making the most of his advantages and bringing the numbers down. The statistics as they are can't tell us anything unless they are broken down more. There are people that win more games on average and people who lose more games on average and there are players that always use Erebus and people that casually drift between DGs depending on their mood. Without knowing anything about the kind of players that use Erebus, we can't draw any conclusions from just the numbers.

Our most accurate metric at the moment is reasonable projections, tested and found to be true. Things like his ability to permanately stay in Mist form if a player invests towards it, his movement advantage given by Bat Swarm over impassable terrain and the amount and extent of the utility co-efficients stacked on his primary damage ability. We know he can do the first two; feats not as easily replicable by other DGs without significant trade-offs and the third is a more complicated matter but seems such a 'must have' that it's drawn suspicion.

You are misrepresenting statistics here, these things DO NOT MATTER, the law of large numbers holds that there will always be regression towards the mean, the stats hold unless they have been tampered with or artificially generated, I don’t believe either possibility to be the case.

May 12, 2009 8:52:41 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

The Erebus nerf is bad, because it nerfs all the wrong things.

Bite is not OP because of the damage, it's OP because of the slow and armor reduction, and instant cast.  Only the armor reduction is getting a nerf.

Bat swarm is OP because bite is instant cast.  Bat swarm + bite = you're dead.

Bat swarm should not work on crucible for circumventing the back of the map, the teleport items don't.

Poison blood is OP because it gives too much HP regen, should be reworked.

His base speed is too high, he almost gets as fast as other chars with speed increase items.

His mist is OP because it removes all debuffs and you're able to regen mana in mist form.

But you know, gotta make the less skillful happy and from what I've seen this game has alot less skillful players on average than dawn of war and war3, so maybe it's a wise decision.

May 12, 2009 8:59:20 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Quoting BeardKing,


You are misrepresenting statistics here, these things DO NOT MATTER, the law of large numbers holds that there will always be regression towards the mean,

To complete the thought you are trying to express, you have to ask "which mean?" If better players tend not to play Erebus (as the person you're responding to conjectures) then regression will indeed be towards the mean, but the mean will be the mean score earned by underskilled players. Erebus will appear to be worse off than he actually is from a balance standpoint.

May 12, 2009 9:06:03 PM from Stardock Forums Stardock Forums

If you're going to accuse me of misrepresenting statistics, please point out exactly where. I don't know how I could have been any clearer and you didn't do a damn thing to explain how the concept of regression towards the mean is relevant. Can you please explain some more because you've given me sod all to go on.

May 12, 2009 9:10:32 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Pantheon stats don't matter, they're probably broken, and for all we know, it might even include AI in it. I'm pretty sure AI is still in pantheon because I just played a pantheon match with 2v2 with 1 team having an AI. I also got a 2v1 before that.  Not to mention the abundance of bad players who probably decided to play him after hearing he's overpowered.

No stats to back the nerf up? Bite is an ability with a low cost, low recharge, no cast time that did 300 life drain + snare + armor debuff at level 1 allowing your next few attacks to hit for more damage. 600 points of damage+heal+2 other effects, does way more than other level 1 skills of other demigods.

 Erebus is already powerful enough even after the nerf, as he has 2 ways to escape otherwise certain death, and an effective stun.

May 12, 2009 9:24:38 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Last time i checked a good UB player will shut down erebus from level 1-5.

May 12, 2009 9:29:11 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Quoting Master Shake,

Quoting BeardKing, reply 11

You are misrepresenting statistics here, these things DO NOT MATTER, the law of large numbers holds that there will always be regression towards the mean,
To complete the thought you are trying to express, you have to ask "which mean?" If better players tend not to play Erebus (as the person you're responding to conjectures) then regression will indeed be towards the mean, but the mean will be the mean score earned by underskilled players. Erebus will appear to be worse off than he actually is from a balance standpoint.

As you noted, this is pure conjecture; a normative distribution of both good and bad players should be inferred.

Quoting Gorgeras,
If you're going to accuse me of misrepresenting statistics, please point out exactly where. I don't know how I could have been any clearer and you didn't do a damn thing to explain how the concept of regression towards the mean is relevant. Can you please explain some more because you've given me sod all to go on.

Regression trends towards the population mean of the group in sum, i.e. we have some good players, some bad ones, some that play these characters, some that play others, but given enough data (law of large numbers) the result will eventually reach the true mean, your conjecture therefore does not hold, it require a gross discrepancy between poor and competent players to make any sort of impact, and you can not assume this as it is highly unlikely. At current Erebus's stats sit at a 52% win rate after 32,199 games, I suppose you could argue that this is a bad sample, but that would only be because more data is needed.

 

May 12, 2009 9:36:46 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

true test of over/underpowerness: get a massive (100+ players) tournament of lets say 3v3 or 4v4 and see how many of each type of demigod make it into quarter finals. 

 

i believe while watching a starcraft tourny (i think the second intel one) out of 32, each race had 10 or 11, the closes possible to 3 way tie.  im pretty sure it was the round of 32, i could be wrong.

May 12, 2009 9:45:02 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

true test of over/underpowerness: get a massive (100+ players) tournament of lets say 3v3 or 4v4 and see how many of each type of demigod make it into quarter finals.



i believe while watching a starcraft tourny (i think the second intel one) out of 32, each race had 10 or 11, the closes possible to 3 way tie. im pretty sure it was the round of 32, i could be wrong.

/agreed

This is why a competitive scene would go far in determining game balance, but we are not there yet.

May 12, 2009 9:53:51 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Conserve your rage, There will be many more changes. You will need to be at your peak to adequately convey your fury.

May 12, 2009 10:10:10 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Quoting Esbon,
Conserve your rage, There will be many more changes. You will need to be at your peak to adequately convey your fury.

 

Seriously one nerf and everyone busts out the kleenex and rage hats.

 

Imo conserve your rage like Esbon said ... wait till some others get some nerfs/buffs. So much crying incoming ...

May 12, 2009 11:01:35 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Esbon and Makerz, I think you are correct and this is precisely what worries me. I am all for balancing, but I think that these decisions should be rooted in proper data, rather than people’s subjective experience. This is why I advocate the use of statistics, and if the current statistics are inadequate, we should work to resolve this. I want the game to be balanced, what I don’t want is the game to be constantly “balanced” and “re-balanced” because the first time didn’t actually balance the game, nor the second, and on and on ad infinitum. I think good data, and the establishment of a competitive scene, should be prerequisite to major changes in order that we might avoid mistakes, and avoid falling into what seems to be a rather pervasive problem in games, the never ending balance treadmill. Squeaky wheels should not get grease, the game should, and it should be doled out in an objective fashion; and I hope this is something, on its merit alone, which we can all ascent to.

May 12, 2009 11:06:27 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Quoting JagerJack,
I meant that when you are stuck with an AI from the beginning of the game it isn't uncommon for the enemy AI to be Erebus, in my experience at least.

And yes, I'm aware that the AI was recently taken out of Pantheon, but I stress the term recently. The AI haven't been out long enough to make a significant change in the stats.

Personal experiences represent too small of a sample to support a claim that one Demigod is played by the AI more than another. As said by BeardKing:

...the law of large numbers holds that there will always be regression towards the mean, the stats hold unless they have been tampered with...

In this case, we can assume that the distribution of games played fully or partially by AI will be roughly the same for each demigod.

Back to JagerJack:

I think we should wait until later in the current pantheon before we use stats to prove a point.

Ouchy Dathurts made an excellent response here, and I have one to add. The point here is that balancing changes should be justified by objective information, not by expert (or inexpert) subjective opinions. The OP shouldnt have to bring up statistics at the 11th hour, they should have been the foundation of this debate from the beginning!

Moving on: Busdude says

Pantheon stats don't matter, they're probably broken, and for all we know, it might even include AI in it. I'm pretty sure AI is still in pantheon because I just played a pantheon match with 2v2 with 1 team having an AI. I also got a 2v1 before that.  Not to mention the abundance of bad players who probably decided to play him after hearing he's overpowered.

No stats to back the nerf up? Bite is an ability with a low cost, low recharge, no cast time that did 300 life drain + snare + armor debuff at level 1 allowing your next few attacks to hit for more damage. 600 points of damage+heal+2 other effects, does way more than other level 1 skills of other demigods.

 Erebus is already powerful enough even after the nerf, as he has 2 ways to escape otherwise certain death, and an effective stun.

I edited the first paragraph of your post with underlines to bring attention to how many assumptions you are making here, and that you did not give us any support for them. In the second paragraph I italicised sections and words that you need to support. For example, define "low", lower than other abilites? which abilites? "way more than other level 1 skills", how much more is "way more"? which skills? how do they relate to bite? It is your responsibility to inform these claims, and please be less vague in the future.

Finally: from Gorgeras

Pantheon statistics do not tell you which DGs are the most efficient. If they did, then it would mean Hunters in World of Warcraft were kings of everything for the first two years and Shaman never had any advantage in the early days of PvP, but it's widely accepted that Hunters were over-used by gold-farmers and Shaman was a problem until the autumn of 2005. The context is important.

"The context is important" applies to your own post as well, in which you compare an MMORPG that features PvE and PvP with a persistant world; to a non-persistant, deathmatch style game that features no PvE play. Class distribution in WoW reflects more than just players interested in PvP, at least that is what i'll assume from the link you gave supporting your arguement (there was none).

 

edit: formatting issues

May 12, 2009 11:28:30 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Overall statistics don't take into account skill thresholds before something becomes overpowered.  If erebus is only overpowered at a very high level of play, the stats won't reflect that.  This is the reason that leaderboard balancing is completely foolish.  If you just look at what wins the most, you see what is easiest for the most people to win with, not what is the most powerful.

May 12, 2009 11:34:33 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

honestly, I'm a bit shocked they nerfed him already. Has not even been a month

Stardock Forums v1.0.0.0    #108435  walnut2   Server Load Time: 00:00:00.0000797   Page Render Time:

Stardock Magazine | Register | Online Privacy Policy | Terms of Use

Copyright ?? 2012 Stardock Entertainment and Gas Powered Games. Demigod is a trademark of Gas Powered Games. All rights reserved. All other trademarks and copyrights are the properties of their respective owners. Windows, the Windows Vista Start button and Xbox 360 are trademarks of the Microsoft group of companies, and 'Games for Windows' and the Windows Vista Start button logo are used under license from Microsoft. ?? 2012 Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. All rights reserved. AMD, the AMD Arrow logo and combinations thereof are trademarks of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.