My hypothesis was the possible future, where everyone who currently pays for their games suddenly decide to stop paying for things too. That *would* kill the games industry as we know it.
Actually it wouldn't. That is because music and games would still be made and people would still have to find a different business model to monetize it. As long as there is a demand for games, people will figure out ways to get paid for doing so.
Your argument rests on the assumption that the world is static and people can't think of any other way to make money out of games except through selling.
Read what I said again, carefully.
That *would* kill the games industry as we know it.
the games industry as we know it.
as we know it.
The games industry as we know it is still predominantly about boxes sold in shops. If everyone stops paying for games and just downloads pirated versions instead, as you so rightly observed, bang goes that business model. That's basically what I said. Thanks.
So yes, the games industry as we know it dies, and some new model tries to fill its place. MMORPGs are relatively safe (need to connect to the server to play). Things like Demigod (once it works) with online multiplayer and persistence of characters, again, relatively safe, although they would probably have to move to a MMORPG-like subscription model. Woo, £5 per month (assuming half the normal MMORPG rate) to play a game that, under the old regime, I could have bought outright for less than £30! If I play for > 6 months, I've spent as much anyway! Hurray! Another model being investigated for multiplayer shooters is free-to-play, with paid-for customisation (Battlefield: Heroes). Again, that might well work, and I wish them every success.
The trouble is... Nobody's really come up with a compelling alternative that would work for, say, a 40 hr single player RPG. Do you break it up into episodes? That would really hurt a game like Oblivion, and the episodes would just get pirated anyway. Do you turn it into a MMORPG? But I don't want to pay a subscription, or have to put up with MMO players. Where's the solution?
Somehow, I suspect that if the day comes that you can't make money selling games as units, we can kiss goodbye to:
Large-scale single player FPS (eg Halflife 2, Bioshock)
Large-scale free-roaming RPGs (eg Oblivion, KotOR (which has already given up and gone MMO!))
Single player 4X strategy games (eg Gal Civ, Civ series)
Assuming everyone will just download the pirated copy, and that any future content will also be pirated and not bought, where's the business model for these games? It doesn't exist. It's just not there. "Please donate" is unlikely to cut it when you've got teams of hundreds to pay.
I quite like all three of the genres above, and many others which would face a similar fate if pirating were to continue to grow unabated and erode the base of paying customers. Something to think about, anyway...
Quoting SimRex, reply 5
Quoting floodiastus, reply 24
Except that, as others have said, if you have money to buy a PC capable of running the latest games, pay for broadband internet, and pay for electricity torun your PC, you *can* afford to spend money on a PC game. That's kind of the problem. No matter how much you try to be high and mighty, "oh, please, think of the poor of the world, don't deny them this wonderful culture!", the genuinely poor people of the world aren't the ones pirating. They can't afford the equipment.
Clearly youve never been to asia.
No, I've never been to Asia, but what's that got to do with anything? Broadband is an expensive commodity anywhere, and if you're really in a state of poverty, Asian or not, it should be among the first things to go. If you can afford $10.85 per month for broadband in China, you can afford to save up and buy a game. If you can't afford to save up for a game, you're living beyond your means and are a fool for having the broadband in the first place. Simple as.
Where are you from?
Anyways pirating music, movies and old games are ok then, since it doesnt require some fancy hardware?
Personally, I'd say pirating a six-year-old game that's no longer sold doesn't do much harm to anybody. It's already made its sales, and (hopefully) enabled the developer to stay open and produce more games. In most cases a game makes all the money it's going to make within the first year. There are exceptions - MMOs, games which continue to introduce new content for years after release, "classics". But largely, after the first year, when it hits the bargain bucket, that's it for substantial sales revenue.
However, that wasn't my point. My point was that it CANNOT be the poorest people who are pirating the latest video games, because there is a price barrier to entry - you need a decent gaming PC. Owning a gaming PC strongly implies that you are not poor. I was not saying it's OK to pirate when you don't need expensive equipment. Please don't put words in my mouth 
So getting back to the point, you asserted that the 70% of the world's population who are in a state of poverty are the ones pirating, which is wrong. Actually a truly poor person has as much use for a PC game as a fish has for a bicycle. I don't know for sure, but I suspect you'll find that most pirates are aged between 10-25 and are wealthy enough (or have parents wealthy enough) to have a broadband connection, electricity, a gaming PC, food, drink, a roof over their heads, etc, etc. People who, if they saved a little, or just bothered to put their hand in their pocket once in a while, can afford to pay for PC games. I know, I was one, and had friends who were too, but now that I have a steady job, and a little perspective other than "WANT, MUST HAVE, NOT PAYING, HAHA!", I can see what a freeloading douche I was.
