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Gabe Newell (Valve) Talks Piracy

Some interesting observations here

By on February 25, 2009 11:53:16 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

 

Link

 

From there, he noted that the reason "piracy" is doing so well is that the "pirates are ahead not just on price, but on service." In fact, he noted that since DRM decreases the service value for customers, it also tends to increase piracy, rather than decrease it.

 

In fact, it looks like a big part of the problem facing the industry is that they charge way too much for their products. Here are the numbers Newell shared from Valve's experiments with "sale" pricing:

  • 10% off = 35% increase in sales (real dollars, not units shipped)
  • 25% off = 245% increase in sales
  • 50% off = 320% increase in sales
  • 75% off = 1470% increase in sales

Newell then says when they decrease the price by 75%, they are making 15% more than when they were charging at full price

 

An interesting article, I'd suggest giving it a read (it's pretty short).

+19 Karma | 23 Replies
February 25, 2009 12:07:03 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Hmmm... Looks like a traditional high volume sales model to me [think restaurant and bar business]. It should be noted that one must have a very large market reach, exclusive and or a special product or experience to effectively use such a model.

February 25, 2009 12:11:09 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

That pricing analysis is fascinating, and hopefully encouraging for businesses like Stardock. I guess it was only a matter of time before commodity software caught up with commodity hardware. My first internal hard drive was just 10 megs and cost a couple-few hundred bucks, IIRC. I still work with the guy who helped me put together that old box, and he just bought a 500 gig drive for about $60, which would have been about $30 in 1985 purchasing power.

February 25, 2009 12:59:13 PM from GalCiv II Forums GalCiv II Forums

I'm more of a persistent ownership type.

How many titles exploit the features growth release model?

Heck, have you really considered how much of The Sims is there? After, you've bought all of the many different additional stuff that enhances *it*?

From Version 1 to X... one can actually purchase something at multiple times its real value as a 'gameplay context'. Don't get wrong, popular games can (and probably should) create hype and needs in consumers, but when it comes down to being fair to the market or staying competitive enough in it - what is most important?

Product Quality, with a big Q!

 

I gave my money to Blizzard for Warcraft 1, 2, and a few more "tools", expansions & what else. I feel i earned some sort of a rebate for being there first while paying full pricing scales - at the time. Add it all up, it's a whopping 200$+ total cost for a **single** game. Just for having the latest gimmicks of the trade. Just to be able to play up_to_date innovation. Nobody enforces us into that 'need', but please do think outside the box here.

 

Sure, SD does it too... and, who can blame them. Profit is the master of all business planning in the ACTUAL free-market principles & modern economic ways - what is more important for this, then?

Product quantity, with a small q!

 

Consumers deserve better than loop holes and cash grab patterns - we have enough of this junk process with cars & houses and - you guessed it - PCs already.

We fix & repair the Cars for a reason, we renovate Kitchens, we slap cards in Mobos... but, seriously when was the last time you had a game CD without any bugs or missing that very slightly little newest feature only purchasable in version 2.0 of anything for 40$+/- more. I'm not that good in mathematics and yet, 40+40=80.

 

Simple -- upgrade me for much less than what i had to ditch for new.

 

February 25, 2009 1:05:56 PM from GalCiv II Forums GalCiv II Forums

An interesting article, I'd suggest giving it a real (it's pretty short).

Duh--

Bad Request - Invalid URL

, call it a coincidence.

February 25, 2009 1:51:22 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

I only pay full price for PC games if I really want to support the developers.

Otherwise the industry gives me no reason to pay more than $10 for a game.

If I wait a few years, I can buy a fully-patched deluxe version for a fraction of the cost. I pay less and get a superior product.

These days, PC games cannot be resold (Impulse, Steamworks). If they don't work, I can't return or exchange them. Both of these factors decrease the value of the game. Why pay $50 for a 6-hour game like Mirror's Edge when I can rent a console version for a few bucks? Steam and Impulse should both have rental features, but that's another story...

Digital distribution also puts dozens and dozens of old games at my fingertips, each for less than $10. For $50, I can buy one new game or 5-7 old games from GOG or wherever.

The last new game I bought was The Orange Box, but I've spent around ~$200 on PC games since then.

So I'm spending less money per game, but more money on PC games overall. All of that $200 went to Steam and Impulse, btw.

February 25, 2009 1:53:27 PM from GalCiv II Forums GalCiv II Forums

Newell then says when they decrease the price by 75%, they are making 15% more than when they were charging at full price

That's great, mister "I'm selling on my own download service, so every dollar of my games sold is pure profit." If you were selling in stores, or even on someone else's service, there'd be fixed costs involved.

February 25, 2009 3:37:37 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

So bandwidth, office space, and employee paychecks are not fixed costs?

February 25, 2009 4:03:13 PM from PoliticalMachine Forums PoliticalMachine Forums

Retail/production costs add a lot more.

February 25, 2009 4:09:36 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Zyxpsilon,

An interesting article, I'd suggest giving it a real (it's pretty short).
Duh--

Bad Request - Invalid URL
, call it a coincidence.

 

Sorry, I mucked up the link on a previous edit.  Should be fixed now.

February 25, 2009 4:18:03 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Interesting stuff.

I think the recent reappearance of GalCiv 2 on the top sales list reinforces it. Much like anything else on the market, games have a market that will pay full price, and then a much larger market that will pay less then full price. (Even console hardware follows this pattern, but console games are stubborn about going down in price.)

February 25, 2009 4:27:22 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting kryo,
Retail/production costs add a lot more.

 

I don't know if you're allowed to say this, but can we get an estimate of how much more?

 

I tend to prefer buying DD, as I think it supports the industry more.  I pretty much won't by a PC game in a store anymore, and that would only change if I had internet caps forced on me.

 

 

February 25, 2009 5:43:21 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Its true.  if all my PC games were the $15 games I buy when steam goes on their 25-75% sales, I'd be buying a lot more games.   (of course, I'd be even more backed up on my games, but still)

I'm actually surprised more companies don't go for the "lower price for same quality!" sales pitch for the AAA title games.

Even now there are no less than 2 titles I really want to buy, but they just won't break that $40 which I don't want to pay for them since I know I won't get 40 hours of gameplay (I try to keep about a dollar per hour of gameplay on all but the highest quality games)

February 25, 2009 5:51:45 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Quoting landisaurus,
Its true.  if all my PC games were the $15 games I buy when steam goes on their 25-75% sales, I'd be buying a lot more games.   (of course, I'd be even more backed up on my games, but still)

I'm actually surprised more companies don't go for the "lower price for same quality!" sales pitch for the AAA title games.

 

Yea I was talking about that with my friend.  It's be an interesting experiment (of course, something with the costs of a AAA title would be one helluva expensive experiment!) to see what profitability would look like if a AAA title sold for $20 instead of $50.  I'm curious as to where the perfect price point is.

Would a game company be shooting themselves in the foot for releasing an AAA title for $20 out the gates?  With all the hype, there are going to be a LOT of people willing to shell out $50, so why sell for $20?  On the flip side, Valve saying they made 15% more profit at $20 long after release than they did on release day... so who knows??

All I know is that if more games were $20, I'd buy a lot more games.  $20 is nothing to me psychologically.  When we start talking $40 or $50, I start really picking and choosing what titles I buy, and I pass up those that I don't feel will have much in the way of longevity.

A perfect example was Supreme Commander: Forged Alliance.  I actually played SupCom back in the day, but I was plagued with constant crash issues and it prevented me from really getting into the game.  SupCom had a very negative connotation in my mind, so when Forged Alliance came out I completely skipped it.

However, when Forged Alliance was on Impulse for $19.99, not only did I buy the expansion but several of my friends did as well, despite my previous negative review of the game.  I took the plunge because i had heard from some people that FA was much better, and for $19.99, why not?  For my friends, dropping $19.99 in order to try a game out was trivial.  If the game sucked, they were out the cost of going to a movie, no big deal.  Turns out we really got into SupCom, and now it's a regular on the LAN party.  That right there was probably almost $100 in sales they would have never seen at higher price points.  But it doesn't just end there, with positive experiences with both Sins (Ironclad/Stardock) and SupCom (GPG / Stardock), we got interested in Demigod and all ended up pre-ordering the game.

Digital distribution adds more flexibility to pricing.  I hope, even if it's just for the sake of my own curiosity, someone is able to experiment with game prices on bigger name titles in the future.

February 25, 2009 6:17:01 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Right, if people are willing to buy your game for $50, why not sell it for $50?

I agree that digital pricing can be more flexible and responsive. I don't think Gabe said that $50 is overpriced, but that discounts at the right time can bring in big bucks. Everyone jumped on the L4D deal because its perceived value is $50. People are attracted to limited-time deals, even if they won't play the game very often.

So instead of sticking $50 on your game, ignoring it, and letting retailers clearance it, why not cut the digital sale price in half 8-14 months after release, when the hype hasn't totally vanished?

February 25, 2009 7:29:40 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Woot! I love articles like this. It's nice to see that companies (at least one anyways) are trying to understand the customer. We're not the enemy. We should be encouraged to buy the product and we certainly don't wish to be viewed as potential criminals. Companies, like EA, tend to side with DRM technology and it always turns out the same: The pirates wind up being happier than the customer. The pirates avoid the DRM and spend nothing, while the customer has to live with DRM and occassionaly confront it, all after spending fifty dollars.

 

Of course, it's a little funny that Steam still hasn't dropped their prices in light of this recent information.

February 25, 2009 7:46:28 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting Serik55,
Right, if people are willing to buy your game for $50, why not sell it for $50?

I agree that digital pricing can be more flexible and responsive. I don't think Gabe said that $50 is overpriced, but that discounts at the right time can bring in big bucks. Everyone jumped on the L4D deal because its perceived value is $50. People are attracted to limited-time deals, even if they won't play the game very often.

So instead of sticking $50 on your game, ignoring it, and letting retailers clearance it, why not cut the digital sale price in half 8-14 months after release, when the hype hasn't totally vanished?

Well thats just it.   Their arguement is that not many people are willing to buy it for $50.  In fact, he pretty directly said that it IS overpriced.   

I think that is why we should have different prices for different levels of consumers.  Like, special edition box sets that come with pretty IN COLOR booklet and CD should be $50, where maybe download only is $40 or even $30 for a new title.  They are saving money on not having to print all the physical stuff, and consumers want to pay less, so they should drop price.

( I always feel really ripped off when I buy a $50 game to get a black and white manual.  Its like, "does color ink really cost that much more, seriously?  Its not like this is the size of the master of magic manual or something like that.  Its 8 pages of mostly text and a keyboard diagram!  can't you make me feel like you care at least a little?" )  

February 25, 2009 8:15:15 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting Alfonse,
That's great, mister "I'm selling on my own download service, so every dollar of my games sold is pure profit." If you were selling in stores, or even on someone else's service, there'd be fixed costs involved.

In fact, it looks like a big part of the problem facing the industry is that they charge way too much for their products. Here are the numbers Newell shared from Valve's experiments with "sale" pricing:


10% off = 35% increase in sales (real dollars, not units shipped)
25% off = 245% increase in sales
50% off = 320% increase in sales
75% off = 1470% increase in sales

Newell then says when they decrease the price by 75%, they are making 15% more than when they were charging at full price.
Quick, let's do some math.

First off we'll assume a $50 base orice for a game, that seems fair enough. Now we multiply the base price by one minus the discount to find the on salesale price. We multiply that by one plus the sales increase to find the gross in Dollars (Euros, Yin, whatever currency we're using). We can then devide the gross in dollars by the base cost to find out how much more we're grossing.

Here's a nice poorly done chart.

 

Base Price Discount  On Sale Price
Sales Increase in Percent    Gross in Dollars   Gross in Percent
50 10% 45 35% 60.75   121.50%
50 25% 37.5 245% 91.875   183.75%
50 50% 25 320% 80   160.00%
50 75% 12.5 1470% 183.75   367.50%

Hmn, something isn't right here. He says they make 15% more at a 75% discount, yet they gross 367.5% as much. It seems they're only netting $3.91 out of the $12.50 price. Perhaps there is a $8.59 overhead? Perhaps they aren't making pure profit on every sale?

 

Or maybe I just can't do math or they're lieing about how much more they make.

 

February 25, 2009 10:34:30 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Leonon,

 

It's not pure profit on every sale.  You have bandwidth and overhead for each sale as well.  While I doubt the distribution costs scale like they would with physical distribution (and Kryo seems to acknowledge this), it's still there.  More sales equal more servers, bandwidth, etc.

February 26, 2009 3:17:46 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Goodgimp,

That's what I was saying in response to Alfonse saying it was pure profit. I was trying to show that the math and what Gabe Newel said did not add up unless they had overhead that was eating their profits. I didn't say what would be eating into the profit, but what I said pretty much agrees with you about it not being pure profit.

 

So basically, I agree with you.

February 26, 2009 12:04:48 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Oh, oh oh.  Sorry mate, I had misunderstood your post.  I'm going back to Jr. High now for some remedial reading comprehension courses

February 26, 2009 12:51:13 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Alfonse,

Newell then says when they decrease the price by 75%, they are making 15% more than when they were charging at full price


That's great, mister "I'm selling on my own download service, so every dollar of my games sold is pure profit." If you were selling in stores, or even on someone else's service, there'd be fixed costs involved.

I believe this is the only way to fight piracy. If you pirate a game you download it from a torrent. Brick and mortar stores will never be able to compete with the convienience or the price. Digital download however can. You purchase the game and future updates all from the same site. Plus with piracy you have no idea what you're loading onto your PC. The problem now is that's true with buying a retail game. You've no idea what other crap is being loaded onto your system to "protect" the publishers profits. The gaming industry needs to change with the times and they're going about it all wrong with their DRM, limited activation BS.

February 26, 2009 1:24:28 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

when i heard 15% more... i assumed he meant 15 TIMES more. 1470% is roughly 15 times as much, right?

March 2, 2009 7:19:59 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

It's no great surprise that when you drop the price through the floor people flock to buy something.  On the other hand the Steam system of being able to 'gift' people spare copies of your games; plus selling things like Left 4 Dead in a 4 pack is a nifty idea.

That final one is perhaps something Stardock should look at doing... I mean you sell a multiplayer game like Sins... why can't I buy two, three, four copies of it all at once and punt them to different people.

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